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the United States continues to grapple with a severe outbreak of avian influenza A(H5N1), commonly known as bird flu. Since its resurgence in early 2022, the virus has led to the culling of over 166 million birds across all 50 states and Puerto Rico, profoundly impacting the poultry industry and related markets.
Recent Developments
In January 2025, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported the first human fatality from H5N1 in the U.S., involving a Louisiana resident who had been hospitalized with severe illness. As of February 25, 2025, there have been 70 confirmed human cases nationwide, with exposures linked to poultry, dairy cows, and backyard flocks. Notably, three cases lacked known animal contact, raising concerns about potential alternative transmission routes.
The outbreak has also extended to domestic animals, with multiple cases of H5N1 detected in cats in Oregon and Washington. These infections have been associated with the consumption of contaminated raw pet food, prompting recalls and heightened scrutiny of pet food safety protocols.
Impact on Market Prices and Availability
The avian flu has severely disrupted the U.S. poultry industry, leading to significant economic repercussions. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the outbreak has cost the industry approximately $1.4 billion as of November 2024, primarily due to indemnity and compensation payments to affected farmers.
Egg prices have experienced unprecedented increases. In January 2025, retail egg prices reached a record average of $4.95 per dozen, a 53% rise from the previous year. The USDA forecasts an additional 40% increase in egg prices throughout 2025, potentially surpassing $6.90 per dozen.
Wired This surge is attributed to the loss of over 73 million egg-laying hens, significantly reducing supply.
The scarcity and high cost of eggs have led to consumer concerns about potential shortages and purchasing limits in retail outlets. Reports indicate that some stores have implemented wait lines and restricted egg purchases to manage limited supplies.
Government Response
In response to the escalating crisis, the USDA announced a comprehensive $1 billion strategy on February 26, 2025, aimed at combating HPAI, safeguarding the poultry industry, and stabilizing egg prices. The plan allocates $500 million for enhancing farm biosecurity measures, $400 million for financial relief to affected farmers, and $100 million for vaccine and therapeutic research.
A significant component of this initiative is the consideration of vaccinating poultry against H5N1. While vaccination could mitigate the spread of the virus, concerns persist regarding potential trade restrictions from countries that prohibit imports of vaccinated poultry. The USDA is actively collaborating with international partners to address these trade implications and ensure minimal disruptions.
Historical Context
Historically, avian flu outbreaks have led to fluctuations in poultry product prices and availability. The current H5N1 outbreak, however, has resulted in more severe market disruptions compared to previous instances. The unprecedented scale of bird losses and the subsequent impact on egg prices highlight the necessity for robust preventive measures and industry resilience to manage such crises effectively.
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