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As we move into Q4 2025, both wholesale and retail meat prices across beef, pork, and poultry will continue to reflect tight supply chains, high input costs, and shifting consumer demand. Here’s a concise look at what foodservice buyers, retailers, and industry professionals should expect.
Beef Prices: Highest Pressure Point
- Wholesale beef prices are expected to stay elevated due to one of the smallest U.S. cattle herds in decades.
- Retail beef prices — especially ground beef, ribeye, and roasts — may rise another 8–12% year over year.
- Limited cattle supply, strong holiday demand, and high feed and labor costs will keep beef inflation front and center.
Takeaway: Buyers should lock in contracts early or pivot to alternative cuts to protect margins.
Pork Prices: Moderate Increases, Strong Value Play
- Wholesale pork prices are trending slightly higher but nowhere near beef’s volatility.
- Retail pork chops, loins, and ribs may see only 2–5% price increases.
- With beef at record highs, pork will gain share as the best protein value heading into the holidays.
Takeaway: Retailers and foodservice operators will likely feature pork more aggressively in promotions and menus.
Poultry Prices: Most Stable Protein for Q4
- Wholesale chicken prices should stay relatively flat, with minor 1–4% increases depending on the cut.
- Retail chicken breasts and wings remain highly competitive, making poultry the budget-friendly leader for consumers.
Takeaway: Expect strong poultry demand from both retail and institutional buyers looking to offset beef inflation.
Final Outlook
| Protein | Wholesale Price Trend | Retail Price Trend | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beef | High and rising | Highest inflation risk | Hedge early / promote value cuts |
| Pork | Mild increases | Affordable vs beef | Push as substitute protein |
| Poultry | Stable | Strongest consumer value | Lean on chicken for margin recovery |
Bottom Line:
Q4 2025 will be defined by record-high beef prices, steady pork, and stable chicken. Whether you’re in foodservice, grocery retail, or distribution, success will depend on flexible sourcing and smart protein mix management.
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